Bitcoin Approaches a Make-or-Break Zone as Market Structure Weakens
Bitcoin showed brief moments of strength this week, but none of these attempts have meaningfully changed the broader technical picture. Across major timeframes, trend and momentum models continue to reflect a market still under pressure, with recoveries failing to register as genuine shifts in structure.
On the higher timeframes, weekly trend signals remain firmly negative, echoing the same dynamics seen during last spring’s decline: rebounds that look promising at first but fade quickly without ever triggering confirmation signals. Historically, Bitcoin has only regained a sustainable uptrend when weekly closes pushed back above levels equivalent to today’s $94,000 zone — a threshold the market continues to struggle with.
Shorter-horizon signals tell a similar story. Recent rebounds have appeared on mid-range charts but have yet to transition into the stronger confirmation colors that normally precede trend reversals. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $94,000 area decisively, the probability of setting a fresh lower low remains elevated.
Price action supports that idea. Liquidation bands and near-term order-flow show Bitcoin trapped between $87,000 and $91,000, with upside attempts repeatedly running out of momentum. The key question for December becomes how far a relief rally can extend before the next leg lower develops. Current structure suggests that $96,000–98,000 may cap any near-term upside, with a deeper washout toward the $70,000s still possible if weakness persists.
Altcoins as Cycle Signals
Altcoins often telegraph broader market inflection points, and this week they painted a mixed — but tactically useful — picture.
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Ethereum continues to follow a well-defined structure pointing toward $3,400 before rolling over into a deeper correction zone near $2,000. If ETH makes that final push, it may limit how far Bitcoin can extend its rebound.
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XRP remains one of the more structurally interesting charts. A final spike toward $2.20–2.30 followed by a retrace into the $1.30 region would be consistent with its historical behavior in late-cycle resets.
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Litecoin appears fundamentally misaligned with broader market weakness. A rejection near $94 could open the door to a steep move toward the $40 zone — consistent with past capitulation phases.
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Solana shows heavy downside liquidity pools, implying that sub-$100 levels are possible if Bitcoin explores lower supports. This aligns with typical late-cycle altcoin behavior, where losses accelerate into final capitulation.
If Bitcoin does stabilize above the mid-$70,000s, strong buyers are likely to appear across several altcoins — but the market is not yet at that phase.
Outlook
The combination of weak trend confirmation, compressed trading ranges, and unresolved liquidation clusters suggests that the market is still constructing its final reset before conditions can meaningfully improve. A sharp bounce is possible — even likely — but without structural confirmation above $94,000, the broader trend remains vulnerable.
A deeper pullback remains on the table. But so does the possibility that this is the final clearing event before the next major phase of the cycle begins.