Bitcoin Eyes a Short-Term Push Higher — But Structural Weakness Still Lingers
Bitcoin has increased the probability of attempting a short-term move above the $70,000 level. Repeated failures to break decisively below the recent $65,000 low suggest that downside momentum is temporarily losing strength.
Momentum conditions have also started to improve modestly. Our primary inverse momentum model has begun to curve lower, which historically implies that the path of least resistance may now be to the upside. When this dynamic occurs, it often reflects short exhaustion rather than structural strength.
That distinction matters.
While a relief push toward the $73,000–$76,000 region appears technically reasonable, I remain skeptical about the durability of such a move. The broader structure does not yet support a sustained trend reversal.
Positioning: No Conviction From Either Side
Interestingly, larger margin traders — often viewed as more informed participants — have not yet committed meaningfully in either direction. In previous instances, this group moved early ahead of major declines. Their current hesitation suggests that the next directional move has not yet been telegraphed by “smart money.”
Retail positioning is equally indecisive, which is typical during transition phases. Without a clear sentiment extreme, the market lacks the fuel that often drives strong continuation moves.
Trend Confirmation Still Missing
Short-term models show improvement, but higher-timeframe trend signals remain absent. Weekly confirmations — which historically carry the most weight — are not in place.
Ironically, a slower grind lower that allows for a stronger higher-timeframe buy setup would arguably be healthier than a shallow rebound into the low $70,000s that quickly fades.
In other words, a perfect long-term signal developing after proper base-building would be far more constructive than a weak squeeze.
ETF Flows & Macro Headwinds
One persistent headwind remains ETF outflows. Bitcoin spot ETFs have now seen several consecutive weeks of net selling, with cumulative inflows meaningfully reduced since their October peak. Until these flows stabilize, sustained upside becomes harder to maintain.
Macro risks also remain elevated:
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Geopolitical tension in the Middle East
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Ongoing tariff escalation rhetoric
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Yen carry trade concerns amid potential Bank of Japan normalization
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Uncertainty around U.S. rate policy direction
A narrowing U.S.–Japan rate differential could revive yen carry trade unwinds, which historically have pressured risk assets. While Bitcoin did not react immediately to the last Japanese hike, it weakened materially in the months that followed.
Liquidity conditions still matter — and right now they are not clearly supportive.
Technical Roadmap
Reclaiming $70,000 would add short-term interest but would not materially shift the broader technical structure.
A monthly close above $74,500 would be mildly constructive. However, until Bitcoin reclaims $80,000, the larger downtrend structure remains intact and vulnerable to renewed selling.
From a pivot perspective across higher timeframes, Bitcoin remains structurally weak relative to its monthly and yearly reference levels, despite the bounce from the $60,000 region.
What to Watch Next
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Sustained strength above weekly pivot levels increases odds of a $73,000–$76,000 test.
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Continued ETF selling caps upside.
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A macro catalyst could quickly override technical stabilization.
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Failure to build momentum above $70,000 keeps the $65,000 region vulnerable again.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin is attempting stabilization after repeated failed breakdowns, and short-term upside toward the mid-$70,000s is plausible.
But this still looks like a recovery attempt inside a fragile structure — not a confirmed regime shift.
Until higher-timeframe strength returns and liquidity conditions improve, rallies should be treated as tactical opportunities, not strategic declarations of a new bull leg.