Bitcoin Faces Its Most Critical Weekly Close Since Last Year

Bitcoin endured another difficult trading week and now stands on the verge of recording its worst weekly close since September 2024. The market tone remains fragile, and technical conditions suggest that downside momentum has not yet fully exhausted.

Medium-term trend models across multiple time frames continue to flash bearish readings, with shorter windows proving more accurate in recent months than traditional weekly charts. The message remains clear: rallies have been selling opportunities rather than signals of renewed strength.

Momentum indicators also confirm that bearish pressure is intensifying, not easing. Even after the steep price drop, conditions remain deeply oversold, which typically implies exhaustion is near — but not necessarily complete. So far, each attempt at stabilization has met strong resistance, leaving only a narrow chance of forming a short-term base if prices can avoid further decline next week.

On the brighter side, shorter-term reversal models are close to triggering new buy signals, hinting that a temporary rebound may be near. Still, such signals have underperformed recently due to persistent market weakness, meaning confirmation will be essential before declaring a bottom.

Trader positioning data shows a striking contrast between segments:

• Retail traders remain heavily long, roughly three-to-one, a configuration that often works as a contrarian bearish indicator.

• Professional traders, on the other hand, appear far more confident — quietly positioning for a potential move back toward the previous all-time highs. This divergence will be key to watch in the coming week.

From a technical perspective, $93,300 stands out as a crucial line of defense. This area aligns with several major supports — including Fibonacci, trendline, and cloud-based structures. A sustained hold above that level, followed by a recovery toward $104,400, would improve the odds that the low is in. Conversely, a weak bounce capped near $101,000 could open the door to fresh lows below $90,000.

Finally, keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Its next move may dictate near-term risk sentiment across all markets. A short-term surge followed by reversal could mark the inflection point crypto traders have been waiting for.

Bottom line: Bitcoin is at a make-or-break level. Holding above key technical supports could stabilize conditions, but losing them risks a renewed wave of selling. The next few sessions are likely to determine whether this correction deepens — or finally finds its floor.