Bitcoin Struggles at Key Resistance as Macro Risks Rise

Bitcoin closed the week on a weak note after repeatedly failing to gain acceptance above the technically critical $94,000 resistance. That level has now become a clear dividing line between stabilization and renewed downside risk.

Looking ahead, the short-term macro backdrop remains challenging. Inflation data is expected to remain firm, while expectations are building that the Bank of Japan may begin raising rates as early as December, with markets assigning a high probability of tightening by January. Historically, rising inflation prints and Japanese rate hikes have both acted as headwinds for Bitcoin. Adding to the caution, crypto markets have shown a muted response to the Federal Reserve’s latest liquidity measures — hardly a bullish sign.

Despite this, there is an important counterbalance developing beneath the surface. One of the market’s key momentum gauges has been steadily improving, quietly shedding bearish pressure and approaching a level that historically coincides with trend reversals. Trading against this type of improvement has rarely paid off in the past. If this momentum shift completes, the path of least resistance would shift back to the upside.

That raises an important possibility: any further dip may turn out to be a buying opportunity, particularly if Bitcoin forms only a shallow lower low — or ideally a higher low. Notably, this internal improvement is not limited to Bitcoin alone. Several major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and XRP, are now showing healthier underlying conditions than Bitcoin itself.

At the other end of the spectrum, structurally weaker assets are beginning to deteriorate again. Coins with less resilient fundamentals are slipping deeper into bearish territory — a typical pattern if the market experiences one more risk-off phase.

Looking forward, Bitcoin remains the key barometer for a broader market recovery. A sustained improvement in internal momentum — followed by confirmation from longer-term reversal signals expected later this month — will provide the first real test of whether the crypto bear phase is ending or merely pausing.

Bottom line:
Macro risks remain elevated, but internal market conditions are quietly improving. If Bitcoin can absorb another wave of pressure without breaking structurally, the groundwork may be forming for a broader recovery rather than a prolonged downturn.